The Golden Globes are only a day away! Can you believe it! The annual kickoff to award season in the world of film and cinema (as well as television) will air live tomorrow, Sunday, Jan 5, at 8 p.m. EST setting the stage for the frontrunners of the best in the world of entertainment. Most importantly however it will set the baseline for what we can expect from the Academy Awards with nominations set to be announced on January 13, two weeks after the Globes, and the show slated for a Feb. 9 airing. However, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has tended to skew a little differently than the Academy in some years and the competition in this year’s edition of the show, celebrating the best of 2019, leaves a lot of possible statement wins on the table while other films feel like more obvious contenders. So today I’m going to break down who I think will be walking away with the golden statuettes in tomorrow’s big show in the film categories and we’ll see if I called them right. These are my predictions for the winners of the 77th Golden Globe Awards for Film.
I’m going to look at each category specifically designated for movies that will be presented at the Golden Globes tomorrow and pick my predicted winner and the films I believe are the dark horses for the honor. Unlike in past years where I have picked who I think SHOULD win I decided to simplify things in 2020 and simply make this a list of predictions rather than incorporating my personal opinion. How many will I get right? We’ll find out tomorrow. For now, let’s get started!
What movies/actors etc do you think will walk away with a Golden Globe tomorrow? Let me know in the comments below.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
“The Two Popes”
WILL WIN: “The Irishman”
DARK HORSE: “Marriage Story”
I don’t want “The Irishman” to win. It’s not Scorsese’s best movie by any means and I feel it’s a bit overrated. But, let’s face it even at his worst Scorsese turns out masterpieces and “The Irishman” is no exception. While “Marriage Story” is the obvious runner up with “Joker” a divisive likely third place contender, both haven’t earned the buzz of “The Irishman” which led a string of Netflix originals to dominate the Globes in 2019. If it wins it would be the first ever Netflix original to win either of the Best Motion Picture honors and would send a message to the Academy, and to the entire film industry who have been hesitant to honor Netflix movies in the past, that the medium doesn’t matter if the film is a worthy honoree. This could be the Association’s biggest statement of the night as either way I think it will be a Netflix movie that walks away with a Golden statuette.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
“Dolemite Is My Name”
“Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
WILL WIN: “Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood”
DARK HORSE: “Knives Out”
This is a fun category of five actually legitimate musical or comedy films instead of including a few out-of-genre options the association wanted to include as was done in the past. “Jojo Rabbit” is fun and insightful and “Dolemite Is My Name” is amusing while “Rocketman” is the only actual musical making it stand out. However, it comes down to two films for me. “Knives Out” has gained a lot of awards credibility over the last few weeks and has become a sleeper contender in almost every category its placed in. However, “Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood” feels destined to earn Quentin Tarantino his first Best Motion Picture win. It’s an awesome movie and one of his best that feels miles above its competition in terms of style and substance. We’ll see if Tarantino finally breaks through as a Best Picture contender by taking the first steps with a Globe here.
Best Director – Motion Picture
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Todd Phillips, “Joker”
Martin Scorsese, ‘The Irishman”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
WILL WIN: Martin Scorsese
DARK HORSE: Bong Joon Ho
This is for me the hardest award to predict this year. On one hand it’s easy to assume someone whose film will win a Best Picture award is the frontrunner but we’ve seen many times before, including with Scorsese himself, that is not always the case. Bong Joon Ho is an easy pick because of the popularity of “Parasite” with the critics but Scorsese’s “The Irishman” is a favorite to earn Best Picture honors and has him very solidly in the conversation. He also has established respect from the voters which could be a huge advantage for him to walk away with his second Golden Globe. He has eight previous nominations winning three times including the last two times he was nominated. While it’s not a guarantee and I may be sticking more to predictability than out of the box thinking here, I think he’s the frontrunner for this award, but I wouldn’t be shocked by any means to see him lose to the deserving Joon Ho.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy”
WILL WIN: Renee Zellweger
DARK HORSE: Saoirse Ronan
This is an interesting category of very deserving actresses although only three performances really stand out as true contenders: Johansson, Ronan and Zellweger. Johansson’s performance seems to be tragically overlooked so I’m going to predict it will be between Ronan, who won two years ago for “Lady Bird”, and Renee Zellweger, who has three Globe wins to her credit. Zellweger’s performance as Judy Garland in “Judy” has been one of the most talked about female performances of the year and by far the most discussed in this particular category so I’m predicting she becomes the Oscar frontrunner by claiming her fourth Globe win for a film after earning her first nomination in 13 years.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Christian Bale, “Ford v. Ferrari”
Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”
WILL WIN: Joaquin Phoenix
DARK HORSE: Adam Driver
I’d love to see “Marriage Story” get more attention than I think it will get but I believe Adam Driver is a deserving runner-up in this race for the Globe. Nobody is beating Phoenix this year and if they do it’s a crime. While “Joker” has been divisive there’s no denying that Joaquin Phoenix truly BECAME Arthur Fleck and the preparation, transformation and commitment to character are what helped make it one of the best movies of the year (despite what the naysayers would like to preach). I don’t think many disagree this is Phoenix’s Globe to lose. It he wins it would be his second out of six career nominations.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Ana de Armas, “Knives Out”
Awkwafina, “The Farewell”
Cate Blanchett, “Where’d You Go, Bernadette”
Beanie Feldstein, “Booksmart”
Emma Thompson, “Late Night”
WILL WIN: Awkwafina
DARK HORSE: Emma Thompson
You can never deny a proven talent like Emma Thompson as a contender for this award. While Cate Blanchett is also an established talent “Where’d You Go, Bernadette” was a rather irrelevant film whereas “Late Night” got more people, and critics, talking. However even the big names can’t compete with one of the year’s most surprisingly effective performances from Awkwafina. The usually comedic powerhouse turned in a heartfelt and sincere performance in “The Farewell” catching many people’s attention and solidifying herself as a multitalented actress beyond her typical genre. While it’s unlikely she’ll beat Zellweger for the Oscar her inevitable Globe win will give her the credit she is very much due for her commitment to the craft.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Daniel Craig, “Knives Out”
Roman Griffin Davis, “Jojo Rabbit”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
Taron Egerton, “Rocketman”
Eddie Murphy, “Dolemite Is My Name”
WILL WIN: Eddie Murphy
DARK HORSE: Leonardo DiCaprio/Taron Egerton
I couldn’t really decide between DiCaprio’s washed up western actor and Egerton’s fantastical take on Elton John for my dark horse pick, but while I’d be happy to see either of them win all roads seem to lead to Eddie Murphy’s career resurgence performance in “Dolemite Is My Name” as the winner. This is one of those categories where I kind of hope I’m wrong because, personally, I want Egerton to earn at least something for his captivating take on Elton John since none of these men are likely defeating Phoenix at the Oscars, but Murphy’s performance seems to have captured the hearts of critics and industry professionals and the Association does tend to love a good comeback story. It wouldn’t be Murphy’s first win either as he earned a victory in 2007. Honestly this looks like one of the most competitive and unpredictable categories as three out of the five seem to have a legitimate shot.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Annette Bening, “The Report”
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
WILL WIN: Jennifer Lopez
DARK HORSE: Laura Dern
Another category where I think “Marriage Story” will be beat out by a lack of press, Jennifer Lopez has received nothing but high praise for her performance in “Hustlers” and has long been considered the most likely inevitable winner at both the Globes and Oscars for her role. Dern however is a fitting potential runner up, or even maybe surprise winner, as the ruthless but charming lawyer to Scarlet Johannsson’s character in “Marriage Story”. I just don’t see any of the other three women winning this award honestly and it’s hard to bet against Lopez whose performance was certainly the most talked about in this category by far.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood”
WILL WIN: Brad Pitt
DARK HORSE: Tom Hanks
This category could very well contribute to two very successful careers by a couple of industry giants. Tom Hanks has his tenth overall nomination as a film actor and looking for his fifth win, and Brad Pitt who has his ninth nomination seeking his third win. Pitt however seems to be the odds-on favorite to earn the trophy, but I’m perfectly prepared to be wrong here as while Pitt’s performance in “Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood” was a highlight of the film Hanks’ take on the legendary Mr. Rogers packs just enough layers where it will most certainly serve as a possible sentimental vote getter and end up stealing the award away. Either way both are deserving but I think Pitt will come out on top.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Noah Baumbach, “Marriage Story”
Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won, “Parasite”
Anthony McCarten, “The Two Popes”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon A Time… in Hollywood”
Steven Zaillian, “The Irishman”
WILL WIN: “Marriage Story”
DARK HORSE: “Parasite”
Finally, an award where “Marriage Story” looks like the dominant competitor. It’s very well written and highly original while touching on very complicated topics with tact and proper character focus. It’s one of three original screenplays in this mix and, despite being outshined pretty much everywhere else by the rest of the competition, is the most balanced and delicate in its handling of everything from the story to the dialogue and all that lies in between. “Parasite” will likely be its biggest competition for a lot of the same reasons while “The Irishman” is likely to be the most competitive adapted screenplay to give both original films a run for their money.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
WILL WIN: “Marriage Story”
DARK HORSE: “Joker”
I think of all the awards this is where “Marriage Story” is most likely to earn an honor. “Joker” has some beautiful accompaniment that helped sell the poetic nature of its story and it might be too bold to put it ahead of “Little Women” for this honor, but neither will top “Marriage Story”. The Netflix original is the finest example of mixing music with story and tone that 2019 had to offer. Randy Newman has a lot of great works to his credit but “Marriage Story” is among his most brilliant in terms of significance to the personality of the picture. He has surprisingly never won a Golden Globe before despite six previous nominations. This is his first nod in twenty years, his third overall for Original Score, and hopefully the one that will give him his overdue Globe.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
“Beautiful Ghosts” – Cats
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again” – Rocketman
“Into the Unknown” – Frozen 2
“Spirit” – The Lion King
“Stand Up” – Harriet
WILL WIN: “Into the Unknown
DARK HORSE: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again”
I’m usually very into this category, but with the films of 2019 I just couldn’t get a grip on which original song stood out so I’m swinging for the fences. “Let It Go”, the hit tune from the first “Frozen” movie, lost at the Globes so saying the less popular but still popular song from the sequel will beat and original tune from Elton John in a movie ABOUT Elton is a bit of a stretch but level with me here. “Into the Unknown” is a catchy, plot relevant earworm that rivals “Let It Go” in many ways and I just don’t know if the Globes can pass up a makeup win for Disney’s sequel. However, “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” is just as catchy in its own way and “Frozen II” hasn’t exactly made waves the same way its predecessor did so maybe the advantage really does go to the sgon from “Rocketman”. This is a tossup for me so let’s see if I called the right side of the coin.
Best Motion Picture – Animated
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”
“The Lion King”
“Toy Story 4”
WILL WIN: “Toy Story 4”
DARK HORSE: “Frozen II”
This truly is Disney’s trophy to lose. ‘The Lion King” and “Missing Link” don’t stand a chance. One was a horrible remake and the other an overlooked stop motion picture below Laika’s previous candidates. “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World” is a deserving contender but “Frozen II” and “Toy Story 4” were the biggest hits on this list of 2019 and had arguably the most impressive animation. “Toy Story 4” though is the obvious winner. Pixar has won eight times prior and has never lost to another Disney product. The studio has also only lost the award twice when one of their pictures were nominated, one of those times was “Cars 2” and the other was a deserving loss to Sony’s “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” last year. This might be one of the easiest categories to predict based on statistics alone. Regardless of who wins though history will be made with this category as the three frontrunners would all become the second movies of their respective franchises to win the Globe. No two movies from the same series have ever won in this category.
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
“Pain and Glory”
“Portrait of a Lady on Fire”
WILL WIN: “Parasite”
DARK HORSE: “The Farewell”
Really there is no dark horse here because nobody is beating “Parasite”, the film many, myself included, called the best movie of 2019. “The Farewell” is a close second but “Parasite” has this category in the bag. The South Korean flick is destined to earn the honor for foreign film at the Oscars as well and be a heavy contender for Best Picture so betting against it here would be a loser’s game. This is the easiest category to predict hands down.